Aston Martin arrived at the 2026 regulations with Adrian Newey, a two-time world champion, a works Honda deal, a new wind tunnel and an owner willing to fund all of it. Eleven rounds later it sits 10th in the constructors' championship with one point - Fernando Alonso's, in Monaco, collected largely because other people were penalised.
David Coulthard has watched that and reached a conclusion that runs directly against the scoreboard.
"Mark my words, Jolie, as true as we are not sitting in the same room, they will be the biggest improving team over the next two years," Coulthard told co-host Jolie Sharpe during a mid-season review. "And I will predict they will win grands prix in the next two years."
The evidence Coulthard is leaning on is thin but real. Aston Martin brought a substantial upgrade package to the Hungarian Grand Prix and, while neither car scored, both moved. Lance Stroll finished 13th, Alonso 14th.
Stroll's own assessment afterwards was more enthusiastic than the result suggested. "Yeah, really good. We took a huge step this weekend, and we're not in the front of the midfield but in the mix," he told Motorsport.com and other media at the Hungaroring. "We know we need to find a lot of power and just keep finding performance, more downforce, more power and just have to keep pushing forward."
"You've got a guy, how many world championships has Adrian won?" Smedley said. "He's competent, we can tick that box. Then he's got a great bunch of women and men who are working for him in the technical team, all of them probably very talented."
His prescription for Lawrence Stroll was less diplomatic: "Now, it's up to him to corral them and get them all going in the same direction, but leave it alone, judge them in 18 months time."
That is a pointed timeframe. Stroll has owned the Silverstone team since 2018 and has churned through team principals and technical leadership at a rate few rivals have matched, most recently losing Jonathan Wheatley to Audi.
Otmar Szafnauer, who ran the team before that churn reached him, framed the same point in terms of what engineers need in order to take risks.
"Give them psychological safety at work so they can take the risks they need without feeling that their job is at risk," Szafnauer said.
Jake Humphrey was the one who doubted it exists there now, and his reasoning was simply that the staff can read the recent past as well as anyone.
"I don't believe there will be psychological safety there at the moment, because they will look at the evidence in front of them which is lots of people have lost their jobs here in the last four or five years," Humphrey said. "When things haven't gone right, the human being at the team pays the price."
The disagreement here is narrower than it first appears, and more interesting for it. Coulthard is forecasting an outcome; Smedley, Szafnauer and Humphrey are describing a condition. None of them argues the car is currently any good, and none argues Newey and Enrico Cardile cannot eventually build a better one.
What separates them is whether the two years Coulthard is banking on will actually be granted. Smedley's 18-month figure and Coulthard's two-year prediction are close enough to be the same bet - provided nobody at Silverstone loses their job in the meantime.
Aston Martin's second half offers little immediate comfort. Lance Stroll has already suggested the run after the summer break will be harder than the Hungary upgrade made things look, and the team's deficit is split between chassis and a Honda power unit that has cost it reliability as well as performance. The next real test comes at Zandvoort on 23 August, where the Hungary package gets its first proper follow-up.
---
*Originally published on [Newsformula One](https://newsformula.one/article/coulthard-backs-aston-martin-to-win-races-smedley-wants-patience). Visit for full coverage.*